Is California Dying?
Is the golden state really under threat, or is it a convenient right-wing narrative?
It’s been said that politics runs downstream from culture. I’m from the UK — and I’ve never set foot in the state, yet it feels remarkably familiar. It has such a profound and notable cultural impact in the Anglophone world (and indeed beyond), that it seems almost foolish to suggest that the most relevant state in the country, perhaps even the world, could be struggling for air.
I was first introduced to this narrative of the demise of California by conservative commentators. The right-wing has been at odds with California in recent years since its liberalism is diametrically opposed to the southern status quo. Its liberalism has historically by no means been a scourge, and perhaps it has been the state’s greatest strength. California has cultivated an environment known for its cultural and creative relevance like not other, and its business acumen is unmatched. The state has even maintained relevance despite multiple economic recessions and financial difficulties.
Yet it is not just Republicans who fear the decline of the state in recent years. Ordinary citizens and business owners are flocking elsewhere, most frequently to Texas, Arizona, Nevada and Washington. Between 2007 and 2016, some 6 million Californians have left the state. It’s been dubbed the ‘Californian exodus’.
Coronavirus is an oft cited cause — California has amassed over 3 million cases. America’s poor record with the virus is most often attributed to Donald Trump’s laissez-faire attitude which arguably lost him the election. Even so, the pandemic has only exacerbated the ardently anti-Trump state’s previous ailments.
So why are droves of businesses and resident Californians leaving the state each year? Are the states ills being magnified out of proportion, or is there truly a problem at hand?
A state on fire
There are two fundamental problems at play — the quality & cost of living, and the ease of doing business. As California has expanded, the mood of its populace is steadily left-wing, yet legislation is coming at odds with businesses. Tesla is perhaps the most relevant company to pack up and leave. Their globally renowned CEO, Elon Musk said,
If a team has been winning for too long, they tend to get complacent and then they don’t win the championship anymore. California has been winning for too long.
He has cited COVID-19 restrictions as a primary reason, yet the constricting tax environment also represents a heavy burden on businesses. California has a flat 8.84% corporate tax rate, and the highest earners pay upwards of 50% in income tax each year.
Billionaires are the targets of much criticism, and we often despair at the increasing wealth inequality gaps in our societies. Yet states often have to re-write federal budgets when one billionaire leaves. California houses the most in the world.
The state has the second highest cost of living in the country, and there is an estimated shortage of housing between 3–4m. Nationally, more than half of American households can afford the median-priced American home — in California that number is less than a third. 1 in 5 are in poverty, yet if housing was affordable that number would drop by 20%.
Similarly, California’s economic policies are not helping the seriously deprived. Homelessness has increased dramatically since 2009, and California houses 22% of America’s homeless population, for a state whose residents make up only 12% of the country. It seems that California’s progressive policymakers have failed those who need government support the most.
In its pursuit of progressive policy, California is not paying attention to the problems at hand. Whilst its policies are constricting to business, it cannot even help its deprived.
Sunset for California?
For me, this demonstrates the need for successful policy over political rhetoric. It is not a question of Democratic or Republican — California needs directed leadership to solve its problems. Currently, its policymakers have to uncomfortably straddle public opinion and business — and eventually they’ll stretch too far.
It’s worth taking this narrative with a pinch of salt — California isn’t dying anytime soon. But the state has a series of problems that need to be addressed. Striking this balance will be even trickier in a post-COVID world, but for America’s sake it will need to pull through.
